Iran is raining missiles on Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. None of these countries have rivers. They don’t even have lakes or water bodies. They have been made habitable by air-conditioning. Petro dollars can make such largescale air conditioning feasible. 

You cannot drink oil. So, where do these countries get water? The Middle East, well-known for its substantial oil reserves and hot weather, constitutes 46.9 per cent (60.1 million m3/day) of contracted and 41.8 per cent (28.96 million m3/day) of the current total operational desalination capacity worldwide (i.e., 128 million m3/day and 69.3 million m3/day, respectively). As a result, the region accounts for 50.68 per cent (52.83 million m3/day) of the world’s brine production (104.2 million m3/day), according to the 2026 paper—Desalination and the Middle East: research, practices, implications, and prospects—published in the journal Nature.

The paper says, out of 25 countries facing extremely high water stress (i.e., using ≥80 per cent of their renewable water supply) around the world, 15 are located in the Middle East. The region is home to 6 per cent of the world’s population and holds only ≤2 per cent of the world’s renewable freshwater.

Located in one of most arid regions of the world, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are dependent on desalination for their water needs. According to this article, GCC countries account for some 60 per cent of global water desalination capacity, producing around 40 per cent of the total desalinated water in the world using over 400 desalination plants across the region.

“Approximately 42 per cent of the United Arab Emirates’ drinking water comes from desalination plants, in Kuwait it is 90 per cent, in Oman 86 per cent, and in Saudi Arabia 70 per cent,” the article says.

While TV visuals beam images of missiles hitting oil installations, and conflagrations rising across different Gulf countries, a silent fear runs underneath. It is not about their oil but water and desalination facilities. 

Water, not oil, has become the most crucial element in the as the days of strikes and counter strikes continue. What if Iran hits desalination plants? Or, if some false-flag operation takes place hitting the plants? The possibility is not out of bounds. Back in 2019, Yemen’s Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia’s Shuqaiq desalination plant and barely missed, highlighting how critical the water infrastructures is for normal life in the region.

Desalination is energy-intensive. Liquid fuels and gas produce electricity that makes the plants run. Transmission losses of desalinated water occur. According to some estimates, as much as 50 per cent of desalinated water is lost in some Gulf countries. The salt waste from desalination is pumped back into the Gulf and salinity levels are already beyond normal, according to an analysis.

Whether water becomes a still more critical element than it already is depends on how long war goes on. “It’s difficult to say which way the war goes,” Professor Rajesh Rajagopalan tells Hot Rock. He is professor in international politics, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Regime change is highly unlikely in Iran, Rajagopalan said, without ground forces. To boot, there is no organised opposition in Iran. However, it’s not that the regime cannot fall overnight like Soviet Union and eastern Bloc countries.

Rajagopalan says there are a few things discernible in the missile barrage that Iran is unleashing. It has already hit countries hosting US troops; in the case of UAE, at least 90-95 per cent of missiles have been intercepted. However, given the number Iran is launching, even if five per cent land, they can cause significant damage. But he doesn’t see the war continuing much longer.

Rajagopalan tells Hot Rock that India could suffer “second-order effects”. The first is if the US is mired in the war. That will wean it away from China, which is India’s primary focus. It cannot bring to bear its full weight on China.

Another thing is any instability in global markets, especially when India is seeking to export goods, doesn’t augur well for India. However long the war goes and whatever the outcome, water, not oil, is going to be critical. Meanwhile, the war has already scrambled fertiliser supplies. 

According a report in Bloomberg, Qatar shut LNG production at the world’s largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack, sending European gas prices surging as much as 54 per cent. QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant covers about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply, and the unprecedented halt now threatens energy security and rattled global markets.

In India, Bloomberg reports, “fertiliser production is shutting down for lack of Qatari LNG. “Some manufacturers, like Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd., have started reductions at certain urea plants, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified. Any prolonged disruption may compel companies to shut facilities, the people added, without providing details.””

While the Fertiliser Association of India is confident that it has stocks to supply its customers, its belief relies on the war being shorter. India’s plans to reduce fertiliser subsidy from the next fiscal year may get undone by the war.

“Expensive fertiliser imports would complicate New Delhi’s efforts to rein in spending on nutrient subsidies for farmers, potentially derailing reductions planned in the annual budget. The government is seeking to trim its fiscal deficit target to 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product next fiscal year, from a goal of 4.4 per cent in 2025-26,” the Bloomberg report says. Through war and pestilence, we’re connected in pretty basic ways.

(An incorrect post was pubished earlier. The error is regretted. -Ed)